By Willard S. Squire
Sports suck when we know what will happen before a game starts. A good team usually beats their shittier counterpart, and we can see it a mile away. The talking heads will gather around and debate over an obviously inferior teams “road to victory” and the “few keys to victory”, and then they shitty team will get blown out by three touchdowns. It happens almost every playoffs, and it’s about as boring every single time. It is far more interesting and fun when two teams are closer in talent (or lack thereof), where anything goes and either team could walk away with a win.
Duh you say, of course that’s more interesting to talk and debate about. Unpredictable is almost always more interesting (if you have a more loose version of the word interesting). Yet unpredictable can be utterly terrifying if you’re a fan of either of teams lining up. Now in a typical wildcard weekend, we would have one or two of these interesting games, where the correct answer to the question of “who do you think will win” is “I don’t fucking know.”
This weekend we have four.
Don’t believe me? Look at the lines. As of tonight, the night before the first two games will be played, three out of the four teams are less than 3 point favorites (Houston and Dallas are -1½, and Baltimore is sitting at 2½, all at home), and no team is a touchdown favorite, not even the Monsters of the Midway 2.0 Bears, who are playing a backup QB at home (-6½). What does that mean if you don’t understand gambling? It means that Vegas has no fucking clue what’s going to happen, and that they’re about to make a lot of money based off the fact that you don’t either.
Fantastic, chaos is the fuel that makes the flames of insanity roar, and an insane wildcard weekend is so much better than a boring predictable one.
Colts at Texans: The Deputy and his posse get a chance to take on a force of nature named Deshaun Watson.
A matchup of two young star QBs is always a great way to start off the postseason. Luck has been here before, and Deshaun basically has after being Alabama’s boogeyman for two straight national championships. As good as this revamped Colt’s D is, I’m fairly certain they’re a mental walk in the park compared to the lovecraftian mindfuck that Alabama was. Yet, as good as Watson is, his team is far worse than the star names on it might suggest. We all know how bad the Texans o-line is, as we’ve been beaten over the head more times with the stats almost as many times as Watson has been hit this season. Historically bad. I just don’t think enough gets said about the rest of this team. They’ve had a top ten defense for what seems like 8 years, and yet I can’t think of time I’ve ever trusted them to stop anyone.
This is a team with J.J. Watt (a healthy J.J. Watt!!), a Jadeveon Clowney who’s actually playing like a first round draft pick, and a collection of above average to elite players like Jonathan Joseph, Tyrann Mathis, and Whitney Mercilus, and somehow I’m not scared at all of them. I’m even less scared of them when up against an o-line like the Colts have. They are the Superman to the Bizzaro o-line of the Texans. They take the concept of Andrew Luck being on the ground as a personal affront, and fuck up anyone who would even think about trying to touch their QB.
I just think this game will be won by either Luck, with near days of a clean pocket, picking apart the below average secondary of the Texans, or this is a game where Watson goes batshit berserk and carries this team with the help of some mind melting catches from Deandre Hopkins. Or it could be a game where neither team can ever get into an offensive rhythm and the first team to 15 wins. This is a game between two AFC South teams, who the fuck knows. Gun to my head I’m taking the Colts. I’m not feeling great about it, I just think the O-line play matters and the difference between the two team’s is pretty damn stark.
Seahawks at Cowboys: “Russell Wilson Runs Wild” or “Zeke Runs Wild”
I don’t have nearly as much to say about this game as the one that comes before it. It could still go either way, but I think the Cowboys have greatly over achieved and have benefited from a bad division and a great midseason acquisition (go jerry?), whereas the Seahawks haven’t just overachieved, but I think they’re just a good fucking team. Maybe it’s just my exposure to Seahawks Twitter that’s making me biased, but I think Cowboys fans should be pretty scared right now. The Seahawks defense isn’t L.O.B. anymore, but it has the right pieces (aka Bobby Wagner) to go against this Cowboys offense. If they can manage to bottle up Zeke (not an easy task), they can throw enough jank into this game to have a shot to win it.
The Cowboys D is real, I love their linebackers and they’ve got a pass rush, but I don’t think that matters when going up against Russell Wilson. You can try your best, but Wilson is a magician when it comes to escaping pressure and making plays with his feet or throwing the ball downfield. I’m reaching the point where I’d be surprised if the Cowboys pull this one out, their offense just seems too inconsistent and one dimensional, even with the addition of Cooper. They need Zeke to go off and Dak to stay accurate, if either of those two things don’t happen, they won’t win this game. I give this one to Mr. Wilson and Seahawks Twitter. Make a good video when they win.
Chargers at Ravens: The Old vs The New (it’s a metaphor, kinda)
I don’t know what to make of this game. I think the Chargers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, but this Ravens team is built to throw a team like them off. We saw it just a few weeks ago. The defense is good enough to wreak havoc, and the offense is gimmicky enough to wear out the Chargers D and control the pace of the game. If the Ravens go up by two scores, even if one of those is just a field goal (which the Ravens have possibly the greatest kicker of all time in Justin Tucker), I think it could be too much for the Chargers to come back from. But, and it’s a big but, there is something to be said about the cliché of how it’s pretty hard to beat a team twice.
The Chargers have seen everything the Ravens have to offer and could come in with a good enough gameplay and a confident attitude and beat Baltimore with ease. It sucks that these two teams have to play each other in the first round because I really do think they could’ve met in the AFC championship game if the seeding was right. I’m going with the Chargers. As much as I like LaMar Jackson, I think this game will have to be won with his arm, not his legs, and I’m just not that confident he’s there yet. I hope he proves me wrong.
Bonus chaos scenario: LaMar struggles or gets hurt, Flacco comes in and turns into Postseason Flacco, wins the Ravens this game and carries them to the Super Bowl.
Eagles at Bears: “We’re on a mission from God” vs “Bears beat the Shit out of a backup QB”
This one has the most sliding doors outcomes of all of these games, and I don’t see any other outcomes other than these two:
The Bears defense terrorizes the Eagles for four quarters. Khalil Mack has a pick six, three sacks, and a forced fumble. Trubisky is good, but it’s really just the play calling from Nagy, and the talent of Tarik Cohen.The Bears walk away from a bloodied and destroyed Eagles team, exerting very little real effort. 30-9 is the score.
This is the logical outcome. This is what should happen. This Bears D is fucking monstrous and is probably an all time great unit when all is said and done. Defenses like these have historically been pretty good at taking teams to the Super Bowl and winning it all (see 2015 broncos). They have great coaching and some great talent on offense. They should win this game.
Yet this is what’s going to happen.
2. Nick Foles, bathed in the holy light of Christ, will throw for 400 yards and 3 TDs, RPOing his way up and down the field, making us wonder if Jon Gruden was actually right to trade Mack, as the Bears defense fails to stop Foles. Trubisky throws two picks and fumbles the ball away while Matt Nagy cries on the sidelines as he knows he should just play Chase Daniel. 30-9 is the score.
Facts, logic, and reason all day that this Eagles team should not win this game. The underdog shit was stupid last year, they had a loaded roster last year, especially on defense, and never should’ve been discounted in the way they were. Add in some elite level play from Foles (seriously, watch that NFC championship game against Minnesota, he was on another level), and that team should’ve won the super bowl and it did. This is not the same team. The D-line, which is still great, doesn’t have the amazing depth it did last year, where you could slot in their third string guy as your starter on a lot of other teams. They literally have no corners, and one of their linebackers got indicted on insider trading. Their offense has not been nearly as good as it was last year and is filled with injuries, especially in their backfield.
They should lose this game badly, but I can’t confidently say they will because they have fucking Big Dick Nick Foles under center. All of the stats, equations, eye tests don’t matter because God. God ruins all of your fucking logic and laughs while doing it because Nick Foles is on another mission from God and damn it, that mission is to win football games. You thought you had your chance Chicago, but you never factored in the God-Foles combo. I wish you luck, you’re going to need it.